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Thread: House prices set to slide

  1. #1
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    Default House prices set to slide

    HOUSE PRICES are set to fall as the property market heads into what could be a winter of discontent for homeowners.

    A flood of properties being listed for sale in February has prompted warnings that it could swamp the market and bring an end to the resurgence in prices which occurred last year.

    Alistair Helm, the chief executive of property website realestate.co.nz, said 15,129 homes were listed for sale on the website in February, a massive 47% increase on January's listings.

    Helm said there was usually a listing increase in February, but last month's surge was "exceptional".

    This was compounded by the fact that the number of sales had tailed off dramatically at the end of last year, and in January hit their lowest in nearly 20 years. Real Estate Institute figures showed there were 3666 houses sold in January, down from 4957 in December, and 6056 in November.

    The combination of a big increase in the number of homes for sale and a decline in the number being sold was creating a mountain of "inventory".


    http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-t...s-set-to-slide

  2. #2
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    hmmmmm

    as I expected

  3. #3
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    The statistics should be seasonally adjusted. Typically listings during the winter months are considerably less than in the summer. So if they predict a huge inventory over the winter, it would because people are desperate + the combination like proposed changes in the tax laws (loop holes stopping landlords to negative gear). GST to 15% will cause higher building costs.

    Consider all the variables. Add the leaky house syndrome into the picture and you'll find that it's not too hard to see how prices will fall.

    Or will it? Consider the possibility of countless wealthy migrants coming to NZ. The ones that truly save. Starting to sound like the stock market.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super_BQ View Post
    Or will it? Consider the possibility of countless wealthy migrants coming to NZ.
    From where? Only the Aussie dollar is strong at the moment against the Kiwi ...and I hear migrants are going the other way over the Tasman.

    For the rest of the migrants, the Kiwi dollar is now over 30% stronger. Migrants purchasing power has therefore been reduced.

  5. #5
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    My bet is that there will be another story in 8 months talking about how there is a shortage of houses on the market and prices are going up.

    However I agree about migrant purchasing power is diminished but no more so than a UK expat going to the U.S or Oz.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alan View Post
    My bet is that there will be another story in 8 months talking about how there is a shortage of houses on the market and prices are going up.

    However I agree about migrant purchasing power is diminished but no more so than a UK expat going to the U.S or Oz.
    The Kiwi dollar is strong against the US dollar, the Euro and most other currencies except the Aussie dollar so apart from Aussies buying houses here (and my point was migration tends to go the other way over the Tasman especially when Australia is performing strongly) everybody else will have less funds to spend.

  7. #7
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    These articles don't really take migration into account...

    Highest January migration gains in 6 years

    For the last year the net inflow was 22,600, I assume that all these migrants will need somewhere to live.

    Ian

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by IanW99 View Post
    These articles don't really take migration into account...

    Highest January migration gains in 6 years

    For the last year the net inflow was 22,600, I assume that all these migrants will need somewhere to live.

    Ian
    ...hence the pressure on RENTAL accomodation especially in Auckland. But this doesn't translate into higher house prices, if the migrants don't have the levels of money to spend, especially in the higher hosue price sector....as a reporter said last night ....it translates into trailer parks!

  9. #9
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    Sellers are putting to higher price on their properties, it is a buyers market, you usually pick it up at the other end,so they'd be better to reduce the price.

  10. #10
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    I have seen a different dynamic here which is if people aren't able to achieve the price they desire they just don't put it on sale or they leave it forever and a day i.e. they nest rather than sell. Unless you get a desperate one and the ones we bid on would have preferred bancruptcy.

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