Risk should not be calculated only on the likelihood of something going wrong but also the magnitude of the consequences when something
does go wrong. Having travelled to japan since the disaster I can tell you that the consequences are (and will be) far worse than generally reported in the news. Japan has traditionally had a pretty tight control over 'bad news', combined with a cultural tendency to downplay and accept misfortune. Given the immense economic power of the Japan, I don't believe that NZ would be able to cope with a similar event. In other words, it seems to me that nuclear power should be a last resort for NZ, not something to be embarked upon lightly.
Factors which are generally not included in nuclear power prices is the cost of decommissioning (given a life span of a few decades at most) and the cost of waste handling and storage (because much of nuclear waste is not 'disposed of' in the conventional sense due to its long half-life). This is not to mention the huge sums sunk into research in the past at the cost of the European, American and Russian public. NZ would still have to pay towards this in the form of acquiring the technology and expertise. So, the price at the point of supply might be competetive, but there are a lot of hidden costs which must still be borne.
I agree that the cost of power, like many other things, in NZ is likely to be far more influenced by the logistics of a relatively thinly-spread population (both within NZ and in relation to the rest of the world). One problem with conventional large-scape power plants is that they were developed for a dense urbanised population model. NZ might be better served by smaller local generation, but that does not appeal to investors and the technology is obviously not as advanced.
I don't want to come across as anti-nuclear, because I am firmly seated in the camp of science rather than emotion when it comes to environmental issues. It is just that, on the balance of the information available to me at the moment, I do not believe nuclear power to be a sustainable option for NZ.