ITA success rates?

[Adventurefamily]

Hi All,
Hurrying off to work so did a quick search to see if there are any answers to this ?
We now have our ITA - and of course in bold print it clearly states that it is not a guarantee etc etc that just because we are invited, we get in.
So my ? is - does anybody have an idea of the success rates of people that get ITA (barring any horrendous medical surprises) ?
I know I shouldn't count my chickens yet and I am erring on the side of caution etc but I want to allow myself to get excited and I am too scared to!! LOL
Thanks

[JandM]

I don't think it's possible to know %.

BUT - the ITA would not be issued if the applicant did not APPEAR, from their EOI, to have the correct qualifications for success. If you can prove everything that you have said about yourself, and if you have correctly read (not through wishful thinking) the requirements on the INZ website and forms, you are a long way on the journey. As you say, a surprise at the medical can throw a spanner in the works. Also, if you don't have a job offer, and therefore need to have a CO interview near the end of the process, to assess your knowledge of NZ and your employability, this can make a difference to whether you are offered Residence or deferred Residence (i.e. a Job Search visa to give you nine months to get a job), or, in the worst case scenario, neither.

[dbonnett]

Actually, there are some good statistics available from INZ and Dept of Labour if you dig around a bit. I've taken the numbers from the last EOI in each of the last 2 years and added in summarisations from the DoL periodic reports. In general, getting past the EOI stage drops numbers more than the ITA-AIP step.

From the Monthly Migration Trends (Sept 11) Report:

Residence approvals In July-September 2011, 9,409 people were approved for residence up 1 percent on the 9,329 approved in July-September 2010. Although similar to last year, the current quarter is lower than the same time in 2009 (9,990 approvals). The decline rate for resident applications (14%) remained similar to the previous year (13%).

and from the April 2011 Key Indicators:

Skilled Migrant Category (SMC)
· 16,770 people were approved for residence through the SMC in July-April 2011
compared with 21,309 for the same period in 2010 and 21,763 in 2009. The number
of people applying through the SMC has decreased by 20%. This decrease is due to
less EOI applications meeting the selection criteria.
Migration Trends Key Indicators 4 Report: April 2011
· The onshore decline rate increased from 8% in 2010 to 13% in 2011, while the
offshore decline rate decreased from 38% in 2010 to 26% in 2011. The overall
decline rate of 16% for July-April 2011 compares to 15% in 2010.

From: http://formshelp.immigration.govt.nz...et20101215.pdf and
http://formshelp.immigration.govt.nz...et20111214.pdf
More info at a high level here: http://dol.govt.nz/publications/gene...sept/index.asp and here: http://dol.govt.nz/publications/gene...rt-Apr2011.pdf

Here are the detailed numbers for the 2010 and 2011 years - You can see that moving from EOI to ITA (and actually submitting it, since some people who are selected don't submit their ITAs) reduces the numbers more than getting from ITA to Approved. (I tried to make this cleaner but the silly editor strips out table tags and any extra spaces, so you can't do reasonable layout You can suss out the message though)

Year Submissions - Applications - Declines - Approvals
- - EOI - People - Apps People - Apps People Apps People
2010 14,446 31,772 7,457 17,875 578 1,394 4,336 9,717
2011 14,175 29,524 6,535 14,683 768 1,835 3,987 8,491

[JandM]

Brilliant digging! Thanks for that.

[brandnew]

If you dont mind how did you get that job offer? Did you just apply online went through a recruiter ? Whats your field? I'm at that point now trying to get a job offer to get over 100 points im at 80 now

[dede]

Wow. I wonder what the main reason for decline is? Those are daunting stats given the EOI was at least gone over by someone who knew what they were doing before going to the ITA level. No wonder they say don't sell up 'til later. I'd be very interested to see what the difference was for those applications which were allowed to be lodged (selfishly that's where we are).