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Thread: Pave paradise, put up a parking lot. Japan vs. NZ

  1. #1
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    Default Pave paradise, put up a parking lot. Japan vs. NZ

    So we have a great vaca in Japan, got back today. Two weeks up and down the country. What struck us was the sheer number of people everywhere and I found myself so relieved to be back in the peace and quiet of Welly, however shaky. In fact Japan has a population density some 20x or higher than that of New Zealand. Most people don't have anything approaching a real garden; every square inch appears to be built on or cultivated. Britain is becoming the same IMHO as will lots of places. And that's something to think about for prospective immigrants. The world's population is going from 7bn to 10 bn over the next 30-odd years. And as an aside, New Zealand is the 8th highest natural resources per capita on the planet, the rest being oil nations. For those on the fence about settling down here, you might want to think what the world will look like when many countries become like Japan today.

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    Japan still has a lot of green spaces and beautiful countryside. So it isn't quite the urbanised, overcrowded country as you might think. The megacities in Japan are crowded though as people choose to live and work in the city out of convenience.

    If you want real crowds - just look at my country. Size of about 750 sq kms and a population of 5.3 mil which makes us one of the most crowded nations in the world. And yes I feel stressed just thinking about the numbers.

    Japan is about the size of NZ so you are basically comparing a country with a population of about 130 mil to NZ's 5 mil. A case of what you think is overpopulation versus underpopulation? Both sides of the coin, has its disadvantages.

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    @batgirl...Hokkaido which is at the same latitude as parts of Siberia had lots of green spaces but is snowed under a reasonable amount of the year. We went from top to bottom of the country. There are green spaces not cultivated but they are hillsides. I was shocked how much was built up.

    Well, yes, I'm comparing where I live and where I've just been. Japan is about 1.3x the size of NZ and if you exclude Hokkaido which only has 6mm people out of the 121mm population, the population density differential reaches 25x. Japan's population will actually contract in the next 30 years (more adult diapers being sold than baby diapers as of last year) but it's a blue print for many countries whose population is booming. What do you think England will look like in 25 years time and do you really want to live there/have your kids grow up there? I don't think NZ is necessarily underpopulated in the world of the internet where ideas can be shared easily. I think NZ is just fine as it is.

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    All this about the UK being overpopulated totally depends on where you come from as it does with regards to Japan. If you live in the major cities of either of course thay are highly populated, that in my view is what makes them so exciting and full of life. New Zealand has plenty of open space and low population but that is was one of the reasons it felt so isolated and lacking anything to do apart from go to the beach and go hiking, nice for a while but there is more to life than this. I grew up in Devon and never had any problems with overpopulation, niether would places like Scotland or the lake district. If I wanted to go to the city it was only a 3 hour trip to London, rather than nowhere to go except into a pretend city like Auckland. I live in the South of France now and have heaps of options on my doorstep such as city, mountains, beach, small beautiful villages, vineyards and forests.

    I think living at the end of the world and being out of touch with the rest of it has plenty of drawbacks. and after 6 years in New Zealand I just wanted to be back in touch with the rest of the world and so left for that very reason.

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    As there is a case to be made for overpopulation and the disadvantages it brings, there is a case to be made for underpopulation too and the drawbacks it brings along with it. To believe that NZ's population is "just right" is IMHO a little of an oversight of a personal opinion. I think NZ could do with a little more people and though it has a fertility rate of 2.1 currently, it doesn't really grow the population much in the long run. Migration solves some of the issues of sustaining economic activity (while creating a few others), but with the rate of people who move to Oz and other parts of the world (where there is more jobs, robust growth and higher incomes) we are basically having fewer and fewer younger people and more and more older people whose lifespan has increased due to the better standards of living and healthcare. Generally NZ society will progress like the pattern of the developed world - more older people, fewer younger people, people marrying later, people do not want kids, people who want fewer kids, people who have kids later in life. Etc etc.....this is the beginning to a stagnation in population growth, even if we want to try and increase NZ's population, we wouldn't be able to because, what comes with population decline, economic decline will follow and no migrant would want to move to a country in the throes of economic decline.

    We could do with a little more economic vitality in the country - more diversification in our industries, more capital inflows (to the economy and not to property speculation which is what is happening now), more people with talents and skills, entrepreneurs who want to set up and live in NZ because it is not just a great lifestyle but make good money. We can make better use for our land - tourism is an important industry in NZ one in which I would not want to see changed, but there are other ways to use land productively instead of just farming and more farming. NZ doesn't have the money or the resources to mine and explore the land it has and it has affected us overall.

    The benefits and effects of mining in Australia has moved the country into one of the most economically powerful countries in the world and as a result Australian society has improved tremendously. They have a better lifestyle (or so they say), standard of living, lower costs in almost everything, better healthcare, more jobs, longer lifespan. If NZ aims to be equal to Australia, how so if the goalpost keeps moving further and further away.

    NZ's national esteem seems to be how we measure the number of people who run to Oz in seeking for a better life, despite the main drawback of many not being able to attain residency in Oz having worked and lived there for years; disadvantaged from receiving welfare and assistance while still continuing to pay tax. It is a lopsided tradeoff but it hasn't managed to stop the flows out from NZ until recently.

    Japan has one of the fastest aging population, very soon it will be overtaken by China but NZ will arrive at population stagnation and decline much earlier (if we continue to see the trends of lowering fertility rate in developed countries soon happening to us) as sheer numbers do count (size 5 mil versus 130 mil versus 1.3bil) and very soon the composition of our society will change and with it, follows the standard of living. Prices which are high in this country, will soon be higher, taxes will have to be raised and so will the retirement age. It's 65 right now.....but it wouldn't be a surprise if we move it to 70 and beyond in a couple of decades.

    Our geographical location puts us at a disadvantage, our lack of population growth will matter when we start to be economically insignificant if we say, stop right now. No more people right now....5 mil is just nice. You have to ask yourself of that composition of 5 mil, how many are old and young.

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    I think we will be fine where we are and that population growth will be part of a natural process that brings newcomers from a world that will increasingly look like Japan now in 30 years time. People will still want to come here long after they have had enough of overpopulated countries like the UK - and I know coming from Scotland that there are beautiful less populated places there but I'm talking about the UK of the future and South East England today. It's much easier to keep the gates open in a near-pristine place that is attractive to skilled younger immigrants than to deal with an overbuilt country with a decaying quality of life. As for Australia, the net migration is now positive for NZ now that the mining boom is over in Oz. Kiwis are also coming home from England and other places, attracted to the quality of life for their kids. As to economic decline - don't count on it. There is a huge market for milk and related products, tourism, other ag products, education etc. I don't buy for a second that NZ is in decline. Yes, the age for super will be raised to 70 - but that's the same everywhere. All the 7 other countries with natural resources per capita higher than NZ are oil producing countries. And for that matter there are 18 potential oil bearing basins in NZ which has the 4th largest sea economic zone on the planet. If the recent Wall Street Journal article is true, some 20% of Chinese agricultural land has been compromised by heavy metals. There will be plenty of demand for NZ ag products for a long time. GDP is expected to reach 4% by the send of the year despite the drought. In summary, I'm a true believer that NZ, despite it's problems, is the kind of place you might really think hard about wanting to live in. It's one of those places which in 30 years time will be an island in a sea of overpopulated nations. What's not to like about that?

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    I think you miss the point about urbanisation and the trend that more and more people are gravitating to living in cities over small towns. NZ is a great example of people gravitating to the cities - Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch......not just immigrants flocking to these cities but Kiwis too. What is left in the smaller towns when you see the numbers fall and the economies fall.

    Becoming urbanised and building more does not mean urban decay. In fact it is the direct opposite. Urban decay begins when people leave, when usually there is no more economic activity to be had. Asian cities like Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur are crowded, noisy, filled with pollution but it has not stopped people running to them simply because their economic prowness outweighs all the disadvantages that comes from living there. Similarly Melbourne is increasingly congested, housing prices are generally unaffordable now but it remains a vibrant, exciting city to live and work. Migrants flock to Melbourne hoping to find work and live in the city, they do not flock to Benalla even though it is more beautiful in a setting surrounded by mountains.

    I never did say NZ IS in decline......but if its population decline, and met with an increasingly aging society.....yes NZ will decline, if it does not arrest this development either through attracting more talented people to come here through migration or stopping the outflow of people leaving. We, only just, and JUST manage to get a positive inflow to migration recently and this is no cause for celebration because we have only managed just so.....and these number are also topped up with migrants coming from overseas.

    Secondly you have to ask yourself about the quality of people leaving Oz, are we getting back the talent we've lost to Australia or are we getting back people who lost their jobs, suddenly become ill and would need medical attention in which gain, did we really gain?

    Furthermore, talking about NZ as an agricultural powerhouse economy is missing the entire point. A lot of farming is mechanised and those that isn't doesn't require highly-skilled labour, so we wouldn't be attracting the people we need in this country - the healthcare workers (for an increasing aging population), the engineers, scientists, researchers, IT professionals - people who wouldn't come here if all that we have are farming jobs.

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    Sounds a little rich to say things like, 'now we are here, please don't let anybody else in as the population is just fine'. Imagine if the New Zealand government had the same view as yourself before you moved to NZ. There are many other people in the world who have similar aspirations to yourself and should be giving equal opportunities as yourself. Unfortunately for you that means there may be a chance of the population increasing. . Although with the continued exodus of skilled workers leaving for overseas and the amount of semi-skilled workers coming in I'm not sure New Zealand will ever have a vibrant economy apart from tourism.

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    Whoa there bond cowboy. I never said we should let the population stay as is. If you read what I actually said I said that NZ would be fine attracting lots of younger immigrants. Where did you pull that one from? Sounds rich that you didn't actually read what I wrote.

    BTW there was a net 6,100 into NZ including a fair whack of highly skilled new immigrants last month (or could be 2 months ago - anyway it was the last stats and it's clear it's not all people coming to work in ChCh). The exodus is actually reversing and that's a good thing. NZ is a primary provider of milk products to Asia, in particular China and is a large exporter of logs among other agro products. Contrary to John Key's assessment, Wellington is not dead and becoming a real hub for IT industries. Tourism is important but the NZ economy is anything but just tourism. 4% GDP growth expectations are the highest in the developed world. The whole point of my post was to point out what a good place NZ could be in the next 30 years, not least because there is room for growth in this beautiful corner of the planet.

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    If the population declines there will be issues...but here's the thing Batgirl, the population is actually growing again and with an increase in skilled immigrants. 6,100 in one month is more than just a little. There's been a trend. Understandable that many people - especially Europeans in economic malaise - are trying to get out of dodge. Most of the newbies have degrees and it's definitively not all semi-skilled people going to ChCh. The numbers have been turning quite strongly for several months and it's not just Kiwis in Oz coming home. Lots from the UK too. Maybe it's my Welly bias but there is an extraordinary talent base here or both new Kiwis and those born here. Agro isn't just milking cows. Value-added milk products and vinoculture require expertise. There is also a strong IT and Educational base. In fact where I live there are a number of Kiwis working for UK firms remotely drawn to the much higher quality of life. The scene in Welly is quite exciting right now. Yes, cities are vibrant and there are issues over depopulation in the countryside but you can still buy a home with a garden in Auckland and that will be true for some time as the boundaries are pushed back. In Japan there were very few real lots. I just couldn't live that way. Nor could I live in the concrete jungles of HK or Singapore. Whatever happens to Auckland and even the other cities, I don't believe the urban jungle will be replicated here. Ask any Beijing resident whether they *really* want to live there. Ultimately as a new immigrant with kids you have to think about what a country will look like in the future. And I'm very optimistic about NZ. A country that isn't overpopulated and has areas of great beauty and a culture of doing business will attract entrepreneurial migrants. Debt:GDP at 28% will rise with old age liabilities and what that means is a 70 super age and means testing. However, NZ is in a far better place than most Western nations too.

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