As from November, 2010, if you apply under the Skilled Migrant Category, you can get
Residence, the SMC JSV, or refusal.
PR is a different visa for which you can qualify after living in NZ and holding Residence for a minimum of two years.
http://www.immigration.govt.nz/migra...quirements.htm
And I know there is a strong temptation to try to read the future, but honestly, there is NO way to predict the outcome of your own case by looking at what has happened to other people's, or by juggling numbers of results. Each case depends ONLY on the individual applicant, his/her qualifications and experience, and the answers s/he gives at interview.